Debate about the upcoming census, now little more than one month away, continues unabated. The main trigger this week was the release on Monday of the latest Burma Policy Briefing by the Transnational Institute and the Burma Centrum Netherlands. All 13 briefings in the series are terrifically useful, but this one especially so. Entitled Ethnicity without Meaning, Data without Context: The 2014 Census, Identity and Citizenship in Burma/Myanmar, and running to 24 pages of detailed, informative analysis, it is by far the most important single document currently available on the topic.

The 2014 Population and Housing Census is the first official survey since 1983. Guided by the United Nations Population Fund, the Department of Population in Myanmar’s Ministry of Immigration and Population is aiming for an ambitious 100 percent headcount. As enumerators, it will deploy 100,000 junior school teachers charged with the almost impossible task of securing comprehensive data under 41 question categories. The full cost, funded mainly by western donors, will be $74 million.

The TNI/BCN argument is that the 2014 census is in fact the most significant since the final British census of 1931. Driven by a passion for enumeration and documentation, the British conducted a headcount every 10 years from 1871. None was entirely robust, and even colonial officials admitted to the unreliability of much of their shifting data. However, an accident of history (in the shape of the Second World War and the Japanese occupation of Burma) meant that the 1931 exercise gained great importance. Its segmentation of the population into 15 indigenous race groups and some 135 sub-groups was especially influential. While the 15 major groups were reduced over time, the 135 sub-groups survive to this day.

It is here that the TNI/BCN briefing focuses its critique. It notes that ethnic categories are among the most complex issues in contemporary Myanmar. It holds that the 2014 census will play a decisive role in establishing the contours of ethnic politics for years to come. It asks why the current exercise makes use of flawed designations from 1931, rather than opting for inclusive dialogue and planning designed to deliver more appropriate contemporary categories. It laments the passing up of an opportunity to build trust among ethnic groups and contribute to meaningful national reconciliation. It makes a powerful case for delay and rethinking. It does all of this on the basis of both deep historical analysis stretching back to the dawn of the colonial era nearly 200 years ago, and vivid engagement with the lived experience of identity in present-day Myanmar.

Also on Monday, the Irrawaddy carried an email response from Janet Jackson, UNFPA representative in Myanmar. She argued that reliable census data are essential for policy planning, and held that the considerable resources committed to the 2014 population count should not be wasted. She reiterated the government position that “the census is a purely statistical exercise”. But that is patently not the case, and if large sums of money are about to be spent on a nationwide audit that will undermine the overarching process of political reform and national reconciliation, then the case for modifying or delaying the 2014 census is compelling.