Thomas Fuller published a terrific article in last week’s New York Times summarizing the current state of Thai politics. After five months of Bangkok street protests against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government, the focus is now shifting to courts and agencies willing to hand down judgments favourable to the movement. Making those judgments are individuals long opposed to the successful political parties and social coalitions built by the Shinawatra family over the past 15 years.
One instance is the National Anti-Corruption Commission, which at the end of March called the premier to testify in a case alleging negligence over fraud in a signature rice subsidy scheme. Fuller highlights two oddities. One is the speed with which an often cumbersome agency has acted on this occasion. The other is the major role in the commission of Wicha Mahakhun, who in 2007 was appointed by military leaders to a constitutional review committee formed after a 2006 coup ousted Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. “We all know elections are evil”, Wicha said then. Conceivably, this process could result in suspension of Yingluck’s premiership.
Another instance is the Constitutional Court, which in recent months struck down a major infrastructure plan partly because high-speed rail is apparently not suitable for Thailand, and also rejected a constitutional amendment making the Senate a fully-elected body. An earlier decision to move from a wholly-elected to partially-elected chamber was taken during the same 2007 constitutional rewrite, and several members of the current tribunal were involved then. Relatedly, Sodsri Satayathum, also a member of the 2007 committee, made this comment at a seminar last month: “We used to suspend democracy by military coup. Military coups do not work anymore.”
A rather different instance is the treatment accorded to former Deputy Prime Minister Suthep Thaugsuban, now leader of the protest movement. Wanted on murder charges for his role in a crackdown that left dozens of “red shirt” Shinawatra supporters dead in 2010, he has ignored numerous requests to appear in court. Thus far, no action has been taken against him.
Clearly, Thai democracy is imperiled by an ongoing “judicial coup”. What also emerges from a profound political struggle is the sheer resourcefulness of this Southeast Asian nation’s politico-military elite. Direct power grabs are no longer a live option? Not to worry – there are plenty of other ways to negate the will of the people. At a time in Myanmar’s political development when the military leadership is becoming rather assertive, this neighbouring case has to be of great concern. In Myanmar, too, many people feel that another coup on the lines of 1962 or 1988 is now unlikely to happen. Even if that page has been torn from the establishment playbook, however, others can readily be added.