Last week I was in Naypyitaw only very briefly, and for just the second time – but even a limited acquaintance is bound to stimulate thought. What, then, to make of a city that in December 2013 hosted the 27th Southeast Asian Games, in 2014 is the venue for a wealth of international meetings under Myanmar’s ASEAN chairmanship, and in November 2015 will celebrate 10 years as national administrative capital?

The expert is ANU’s Nicholas Farrelly, who for the first half of this year was based in Naypyitaw. He’s already writing and talking about the city – and from private conversation I know how stimulating is his analysis. I can’t find much on the web, and as far as I can tell he hasn’t yet posted anything substantial at New Mandala. Still, hints of his current thinking are out there. The title of a June 2014 talk gives one indication: “Naypyitaw: exemplifying transition in Myanmar”. An April 2014 news story provides another: “‘In my estimation, the future of Nay Pyi Taw is the future of Myanmar,’ Farrelly said during a presentation on the new capital at the East-West Center in Washington, D.C., in September 2013. ‘If we want to get to grips in the years ahead of what Myanmar will turn into, then we need to understand Nay Pyi Taw and all it will come to represent.'”

Those assessments look exactly right. We know from Wikipedia that Naypyitaw is already the third largest city in Myanmar, with a 2012 population of 1,164,299. We learn from CNN that in 2011 it was one of the 10 fastest-growing cities in the world. From the moment of arrival at a glittering, if empty, international airport that would not disgrace, say, a mid-sized European or North American hub, it’s abundantly clear that this place is destined to lead the nation for many years to come.

On Nich’s evaluation that Naypyitaw exemplifies transition in Myanmar. Above all, the city demonstrates that Than Shwe really did mastermind contemporary national development. He created a new capital with by far the best infrastructure in the country. There’s no going back on the switch from Yangon made in 2005. He also oversaw the creation of discipline-flourishing democracy. For the foreseeable future, it seems likely there will be no major deviation from that either.