Myanmar in Transition: Opportunities and Challenges, released by ADB last week, is a useful and important report. It has fewer than 40 pages of text – but is packed with data and analysis. The headline story (from page vii) has been widely reported: “Myanmar could grow at 7%-8% for a decade or more and raise its per capita income to $2,000-$3,000 by 2030.”

To deliver on that, three basic policy requirements are drawn from Asian experience: stable money through low inflation; high domestic savings to finance investment; and a structural shift towards industry and services to boost productivity, exports and employment. Alongside these core recommendations, the report argues for investment in human capital and infrastructure, sound institutions and social stability, and adherence to market mechanisms for resource allocation. It also surveys possible problems and constraints.

I’m especially interested in what the ADB has to say about education – on pages 25-27. In truth it’s not much, but the data are helpful. Important recent progress saw the gross primary completion rate rise to 103 percent in 2010 – though I’m not entirely sure what that means. By contrast, net enrollment in secondary education lags at around 53-58 percent, and for tertiary education the figures are even lower. Moreover, beyond the primary level problems of education quality, management and investment are acute.

To tackle the major education challenges facing Myanmar, many policy changes need to be made inside the country – there’s a substantial domestic agenda here. At the same time, though, it’s hard to see how the situation can be turned around without significant external engagement. One way or another, human resource needs to be shipped into the country from outside and blended with local teaching. This looks to be the only way that a step change in education will be made, and further wastage of young, formative years averted.