The early months of 2011 saw the dissolution of an established military junta in Myanmar, and the collapse of a long-standing autocratic regime in Egypt. Both countries introduced measures to liberalize and democratize their political systems. Three years on, however, these two cases display clear signs of a revival of military leadership.

In Egypt, massive protests in January 2011 led to the demise of President Hosni Mubarak’s regime the following month. Faced with considerable uncertainty, the army stepped in to rule for six months until a general election was held. In June 2012, Mohamed Morsi became the first democratically-elected president in Egyptian history. In 2013, however, growing civil unrest led to warnings from the army, and finally to Morsi’s removal by Commander-in-Chief and Minister of Defence General Abdel Fattah el-Sisi. In July 2013, El-Sisi became First Deputy Prime Minister alongside his existing duties. At the end of last month, he resigned from the army to run for president in elections scheduled for late May and, if necessary, mid-June.

In Myanmar, President Thein Sein assumed office in March 2011 and was soon hailed as a reformer domestically and internationally. He achieved unprecedented success through a visit to the US, President Obama’s November 2012 visit to Yangon, and the lifting of most western sanctions. However, support for him is deteriorating because of his refusal to convene a “big four” meeting with Commander-in-Chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, powerful Union Parliament Speaker Shwe Mann, and top opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Issues that would certainly be on the agenda include key constitutional amendments, delayed peace negotiations with ethnic groups, and unresolved sectarian violence between Buddhists and Muslims in Rakhine State.

In a third-year anniversary speech delivered to Parliament on March 26, the president highlighted the importance of placing national reconciliation ahead of other political issues. He had previously initiated a “three-phase peace plan” beginning with ceasefires and liaison at the state level, moving to confidence building and political dialogue at the union level, and culminating in the signing of an agreement for eternal peace. Even though roundtable talks with ethnic leaders are ongoing, however, reported clashes between the military and ethnic armed groups are generating doubts about progress with the peace process. Moreover, the armed forces clearly remain key players in national politics. In his speech, the president bluntly declared that they will continue to play a role in the democratic transition.

At the same time Min Aung Hlaing, who stayed mostly out of the limelight and has been tightlipped for the past two years, is now making public appearances. In late 2013, a state-run newspaper devoted an entire page to four stories about him. One reported that while addressing graduates of Military Medical University he mentioned the importance of “human security” in implementing state security, which is unusual in Myanmar military doctrine. This fueled rumours that when he reaches retirement age next year he may decide to run for president. In his Armed Forces Day speech on March 27, he too argued that peace must precede political dialogue. He also recently accompanied Thein Sein on a visit to Kachin State, boosting his image as a man of peace and raising the possibility that the two are now working together in an informal alliance.

As in Egypt, Myanmar is not unfamiliar with military figures taking on political responsibilities. Notwithstanding the gradual transition of the past three years, personal conflicts and political instability could still result in a revival of the military’s role in government.

Su Mon Thazin Aung is a PhD candidate at the University of Hong Kong.